Success or failure could be determined in these places…
What concerning worst-case scenarios could befall the Washington Commanders when the 2024 campaign officially begins?
With a new foundation being set in place, the number of moving parts the Washington Commanders have right now is staggering. In an exceptionally short period, they have accrued a new owner, general manager, and head coach – a lot by any metric.
Add a new quarterback to the mix, and it becomes more unlikely that every button being pushed will become a success. There is hope for a brighter future under new front-office leader Adam Peters, but reality has become a constant disappointment for the Commanders’ long-suffering fanbase more often than not.
Looking at this hopefully unlikely turn of events, here are four worst-case scenarios for the Commanders in 2024.
Commanders rookie QB struggles
It is common knowledge that the Washington Commanders will select a quarterback with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Despite the clear talent each candidate possesses, all three have very distinct styles. With that, distinct flaws that could manifest quite early.
Drake Maye has been in the 33rd percentile of average time to release the ball since 2017. Sure, he scrambles more than most realize. This has helped him keep that number from causing too much harm, but his 2.84 seconds to throw could become a problem, especially if the offensive line fails to improve.
Many think the Commanders will take Jayden Daniels. His collegiate passing grade is under the 50th percentile of quarterback prospects, and he only has one year of stardom under his belt. However, the Heisman Trophy winner makes up for these weaknesses with a precision deep ball, and a dynamism that no other signal-caller emerging from the college ranks possesses.
J.J. McCarthy had 713 overall collegiate pass attempts. That alone could be a worry as regards experience. He’s not considered one of the more accurate quarterbacks in this class, but being in the 99th percentile of catchable pass rate is a statistic that proves this wrong. The question here is if the Commanders believe a game manager can lift this team to the level it hopes to achieve.
Whichever one of the quarterbacks comes in, if they struggle, so will the team. It’s the biggest worst-case scenario for the Commanders.
Commanders OL remains inconsistent
If there was anything worse than the quarterback play in 2023, it was the offensive line. It was the Washington Commanders’ biggest weakness, which is saying a lot given the state of their defense.
There have been changes made. Among them, the Commanders have signed a former Kansas City Chiefs guard looking to become a starter for the first time, a former Dallas Cowboys center who is middle of the pack and will likely be taking a quarterback in the first round instead of going for a supreme blindside protector like Notre Dame’s Joe Alt.
The Commanders have Andrew Wylie, who somehow only gave up nine sacks last year, in a position similar to where he was under Ron Rivera. The interior should be solid, but the edge remains a significant concern.
Unless the new regime has further plans, it seems as if they may be putting forth a merely serviceable group this year instead of the one Commanders fans are hoping to see dominate NFC East defensive lines. This could bring complications to their new rookie signal-caller.
If Nick Allegretti fails to cement himself as the team’s starting left guard, or if Dan Quinn made a mistake by bringing along Tyler Biadasz, the Commanders could find themselves with a line that will give them no hope of reaching for the division title.
Commanders secondary fails to improve
The Washington Commanders’ secondary should have been nowhere near as bad as it ended up becoming. This could very well have been scheming and malfunctioning on the part of the coaches. With Emmanuel Forbes, Kamren Curl, Kendall Fuller, and Benjamin St-Juste, there is no reason for it to have struggled.
Or maybe it was the players.
Curl and Fuller are gone, so there is great pressure on Forbes and St-Juste to show what people thought – at least on paper – that they could be. After all, they’re both long and athletic. But unless the Commanders bring in some more safety help to go along with Darrick Forrest and the promise he has shown on occasion, this group could once more be a division joke.
With the market for ex-Denver Broncos safety Justin Simmons having gone a bit stale, the Commanders should consider bringing aboard the veteran for another one-year deal. The young talent of the secondary could use an All-Pro veteran to teach them the ropes.
The Commanders signed Jeremy Chinn from the Carolina Panthers in free agency. He’s got some outstanding athletic traits Dan Quinn and Joe Whitt Jr. can utilize, but his deficiencies in coverage make him a candidate to play closer to the line of scrimmage when push comes to shove.
If the secondary doesn’t show progress, it doesn’t matter what Daron Payne, Jonathan Allen, Frankie Luvu, and Bobby Wagner do – the Commanders will get shredded in the passing game.
Jahan Dotson becomes a bust
With just over 1,000 receiving yards in his first two seasons, Jahan Dotson needs to pick it up. He has 11 touchdowns, but Washington Commanders fans know that they need to see more from him if the wide receiver is going to solidify himself as worthy of being taken in the first round.
Terry McLaurin needs help. If the Commanders elect to go elsewhere in the draft instead of to the wide receiver position – which would be unwise – it will be because Adam Peters, Dan Quinn, and Kliff Kingsbury believe that Dotson is capable of being the No. 2 option they need to blow the offense open.
Another 500-yard receiving campaign would be a disappointment. The Commanders’ offense needs more. If they are going to become a more explosive, open-field unit that gives defenses fits, this is the year for Dotson to show his skills. There is a lot of pressure on the third-year wideout from Penn State, but a new quarterback and system might allow him to thrive.
He has the tools, but anything short of 800 receiving yards will be a signal that he is getting closer to being a bust than a long-term dependable option. With the current state of Washington’s playmakers on offense, Dotson must impose himself at all three levels of the field.
Without that, they could have another top-10 pick next year.
