Few players in the Cowboys’ training camp are drawing more attention than quarterback Trey Lance. But while we’re anxious to see how he competes for the backup job and if he can create any sort of value beyond this year, one outcome you shouldn’t be looking for is that Lance fails to make the 2024 roster.
Dallas essentially assured Lance’s roster spot when they elected to keep him back in the offseason, triggering a $4.3 million fully guaranteed bonus. It raised his cap hit to $5.3 million including base salary and offers no relief if he is cut. The Cowboys could certainly release him but would still be out the full amount as Lance’s salary is also guaranteed from his original rookie contract.
Why do we even bring this up? Well, we’ve talked before about the possibility that Dallas could part with veteran backup Cooper Rush and run with just Lance behind Dak Prescott on this year’s QB depth chart. This move would result in cap savings for the Cowboys of $2.25 million with Rush in the final year of his deal. Keeping just two QBs would also free up a spot on the 53-man roster for some other position.
If Lance does pull even with Rush in the next four week weeks then this could still happen, but so far every camp observer has Rush leading the fight. Preseason games are still to be played and we can expect Lance to dominate the snaps there, so there’s still time for opinions to change. But for now, Lance is looking very much like the third quarterback.
So if Dallas might not keep Rush as a third QB, why keep Lance? This is where that guaranteed money comes into play as the cost is already sunk in Lance. The Cowboys don’t want to pay him $5.3 million just for being a camp arm and taking bullets in some preseason games. He’d already be one of the most expensive backup quarterbacks in the NFL at that amount; even worse if he’s not even a member of your roster.
While some might say they also don’t want to admit to wasting that fourth-round pick they traded away for Lance, that’s less of a concern. While it’s hardly an asset to take lightly, it’s not like we haven’t seen fourth-rounders get cut after one year or not even make the team at all as rookies. Sure, they can also land you a franchise quarterback on occasion, but in the grand scheme it’s just one less spin at the roulette wheel.
Speaking of that franchise QB, Prescott’s contract situation is part of this as well. If Dallas does start weighing the idea of releasing Lance and eating their losses, they might hesitate if Prescott isn’t signed up beyond this season. Even if they’re not impressed with Lance’s work this summer, he’s still a 24-year-old former third-overall pick. If the coaches can keep working with him throughout the year and then he can be re-signed on the cheap, it gives the Jones family something they can try to sell in the wake of a possible Prescott exit.
Between spent money and unsettled contract issues at quarterback, Trey Lance has some non-football factors working in his favor. Ideally, he’ll work some things out soon and earn his way onto the roster. But it’s hardly “backup or bust” for Lance at this point. He’d have to be so bad and the Cowboys so desperate for that 53rd roster spot not to make it now.
