The New Yankees pitching staff might be operating at too high of a level to maintain.
To start the season, the New York Yankees pitching staff has operating at a very high level.
They are now third in the league for team earned run average on the season, sitting at 2.93. They finished last season in tenth place with a 3.97 ERA.
Bleacher Reports’ Kerry Miller warns about buying too much into their hot start. In his recent article exploring the ‘hot streaks and slumps’ around the league, he listed the Yankees as a ‘sell.’
One of the reason that Miller lists for not being sold on the team’s success is poor Earned Run Average-Fielding Independent and Skill-interactive Earned Run Average.
ERA is a bit self explanatory, but FIP is meant to look at how a pitcher performs outside of the luck factors in a baseball game. New York’s staff is the worst in the league when it comes to ERA-FIP, which suggests that they’ve gotten lucky and a lot of help from the defense.
SIERA is another stat meant to look at just the stuff that the pitcher can control. The Yankees have the sixth-highest SIERA in the league, once again pointing to the fact that the staff might be getting a little bit lucky with a low-ERA.
Marcus Stroman, 33, is one of their arms that is playing at a higher level than usual that could cause a skew in numbers. He has a 2.12 ERA through his first three starts. His best career number was back in 2019 at 2.96. It wouldn’t be too surprising to see a regression from him.
Carlos Rodon is also performing at a high level right now, but in a bit of a return to form. He’s currently at a 2.87 ERA which is just off of the 2.88 he finished 2022 with and he was even better in 2021. His ERA ballooned to 6.85 in a down season last year. If he can settle somewhere between 2022 and 2023, New York will be glad.
Along with the hot starts, the staff is also still waiting on the return of reigning Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole.
It’s not even just the the starters, though, as they also lead the league with nine saves.
I get being trepidacious about the Yankees as a top staff in the league, but they do have a lot of talent on their team. It wouldn’t be too shocking for them to come together and just have a strong season in 2024.
