It’s not quite what Cowboys fans want to hear—backers of Dak Prescott, at least—but a month before the start of the 2024 season, it could well already bee too late for the team to lock up Prescott on a long-term extension. Increasingly, it looks like Prescott will head to free agency in March of 2025, effectively creating a bidding war among what could be a slew of teams desperate for a top-tier quarterback.
That’s the view of top NFL contract expert Mike Ginnitti of Spotrac, who spoke with Dan Soemann on the latest “Spotrac Podcast” and laid out why the ship has probably already sailed on a new Prescott contract—and why Prescott is almost obligated to go to free agency next year.
At issue, Ginnitti says, is the idea that the NFL salary cap is going to continue to spike by more than $30 million per year in the coming years. That’s one reason we’ve seen ballooning contracts at premium positions, including wide receiver but especially quarterback, where a new high-water mark as been reached almost weekly, it seems.
The salary cap jumped from $224 million last year to $255 million in 2024, a trend that should continue—and should bring more eye-popping salaries to the quarterback position.
The Cowboys, ideally, would lock Prescott up on a long-term contract under today’s salary cap, which will look like a bargain even in a few short years. Prescott has absolutely no reason to accept that.
“He’s saying no to everything right now, right?” Ginnitti noted.
Cowboys Dak Prescott Holds All the Leverage in Contract Talks
As well he should, according to Ginnitti. Prescott has no reason to take a long-term deal with the Cowboys this year, not when he holds as much power as he does in the situation now. He has $54 million ahead of him for 2024, so he is under no pressure for an immediate payday. The Cowboys would still have a $40 million cap hit because of the void-year structure of his contract if they lost him next winter. They would not get all that much immediate relief from losing Prescott.
And the one reason he’d be tempted to sign now—the prospect of injury—isn’t all that concerning. Kirk Cousins is 36 and just got a four-year, $180 million contract despite a torn Achilles tendon, after all.
“What Dallas is doing, they’re trying to give him a career contract and he’s trying to take a three- or four-year deal,” Ginnitti said. “He’s trying to do right by the players, and take the short deal, because the cap is going to be $350 by the time that contract is done and he knows it. That’s what’s happening.”
Ample Free-Agent Competition in 2025
Ginnitti and Soemann then outlined a long list of teams that would, potentially, be hard after Prescott, especially if some other QB situations don’t work out. The Raiders and Giants would be the most obvious. The Broncos and Saints are also likely to have interest.
Other teams—the Buccaneers, Titans, Seahawks, Steelers and, heck, even the 49ers could get involved if their current quarterback situations don’t work out. All are seen to have contender-type rosters, but just need a quarterback to unlock the potential. Prescott is a three-time Pro Bowler who led the league in completions (410) and touchdowns (36) last season.
There will be a market, as long as Prescott has the patience to get there. Ginnitti drew a comparison to baseball stars and superagent Scott Boras, who almost never has clients sign extensions.
“I feel like Scott Boras is calling him,” Ginnitti said, “and being like, ‘Dude, don’t even pick up the phone anymore, March 12 is happening—you gotta let this go to free agency, you gotta get nine offers, you gotta let this happen.’ That’s the real way to maximize everything he is doing right now.
“He’s done everything else right—the no-tags, the voids, everything else is on his side. To not go to free agency now would be a travesty, in my opinion.”
