The New York Yankees gave up four pitching prospects and a catcher to acquire Juan Soto and Trent Grisham from the San Diego Padres this offseason, a significant haul for a superstar player who is set to test the open market in free agency after this season.

And while the Yankees are seeing significant early returns from the trade, with Soto already racking up 10 hits and 4 RBI in his first 29 at bats, they might struggle to lure the superstar back as he’s poised to be one of the most coveted free agents in MLB history for 2025 and beyond.

Outlining the risks that the Yankees face, Britt Ghiroli of The Athletic listed two reasons why the crosstown rival New York Mets might have a better chance in securing Soto for the long term.

“I think Steve Cohen and David Stearns have an opportunity to lure Juan Soto to the Mets for a couple of reasons,” Ghiroli said during an appearance on SNY. “One, he is the guy there, bar none. He doesn’t have to worry about … an Aaron Judge. He can go and be the guy with the Mets.”

And she added that, if negotiations come down to the highest price, the Mets could have an edge over any other team.

“And two, I find it very hard to believe if Steve Cohen says, ‘Let’s go, I don’t care what he wants, we’re gonna win this,’ that Scott Boras and Juan Soto — based on what they have said, based on their past — I find it very hard to believe that they would leave money on the table when it comes to this negotiation,” Ghiroli said. “So, I think the Mets have a real, actual chance here.”

The New York Yankees Face Some Payroll Limitations for 2025 and Beyond

If Soto does reach free agency, the bidding will be fierce. As one of the best hitters of his generation, Soto is already a three-time All-Star and four-time Silver Slugger at just 25 years old. He’s led all of MLB in walks three times and in OBP twice.

Ghiroli has previously noted the payroll limitations that the Yankees would face in adding another long-term deal to their books. In 2025, the team is set to pay Aaron Judge $40 million, Gerrit Cole $36 million and Giancarlo Stanton $32 million. Ghiroli reported that Soto is seeking a record contract in terms of average annual value (AAV), which would match Shohei Ohtani’s $46 million annual salary, a total that might scare off Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner under the new competitive balance tax (CBT) rules.

“With the Yankees’ future committed money the higher luxury tax is going to be a continued expense for the team,” Dave Salamone noted for Pinstripe Alley. “It seems there is less pressure to break through this spending wall compared to when the tax rates were more manageable.”

The New York Yankees Can Still Lock in Juan Soto for the Future

Ghiroli did, however, note that there is one thing the Yankees could do to lock in Soto before he even hears offers from other teams as a free agent: win it all this year.

“Juan Soto wants to win,” she said. “If the Yankees go out and win a World Series, I do think that that would matter to Juan Soto.”