There aren’t a lot of ways the Detroit Lions can get noticeably better as an offense after being a top-five scoring unit in each of the last two years. But there is discernible data that shows Jameson Williams could provide a way, if only as a downfield threat. Ideally, he will be more than that this year and there’s also data there from late last season to reflect that possibility.
Beyond health and becoming a well-rounded receiver, offensive coordinator Ben Johnson is surely looking for ways he can put Williams in the best position to succeed. The talent elsewhere on the Lions’ offense will of course help foster favorable matchups for the 12th overall pick in the 2022 draft, it’ll just be a matter of exploiting them as often as possible.
As Johnson has surely done a deep dive into how he can get another level from the Lions’ offense this year, it’s quite possible he has found a certain matchup he can target with Williams a couple times this season.
Pro Football Focus data uncovers matchup Lions can exploit with Jameson Williams
Among three cornerbacks he’s suggesting to target in 2024, Pro Football Focus fantasy football analyst Nathan Jahnke had Chicago Bears cornerback Tyrique Stevenson.
“The Chicago Bears boast a talented, ascending pass defense but second-year perimeter cornerback Tyrique Stevenson shakily backed by rotating free safeties, is an easily exploited defender. His 60.1 PFF defense ranks 44thamong 63 NFL cornerbacks with at least 700 defensive snaps.”
Per Jahnke, among 64 cornerbacks with a least 320 perimeter coverage snaps last season, Stevenson ranked 41st or worse in PFF coverage grade (47th), targeted rate (64th), catch rate allowed (tied for 41st), yards allowed per coverage snap (60th) and open target rate (46th).
Jahnke also highlighted how Stevenson will not get much help from new Bears’ safeties Kevin Byard and Jonathan Owens.
“Among 65 NFL safeties with at least 350 coverage snaps, Byard ranks outside the top 50 in catch rate allowed (79.7%), forced incompletion rate (1.7%) and yards allowed per coverage snap (0.73). His 68.0 PFF coverage grade ties for 28th. Owens’ 59.6 PFF coverage grade ranks 52nd.”
So how is that helpful to Williams, and a matchup he should be lined up to exploit? Thanks for asking.
Jahnke did note how Bears’ No. 1 cornerback Jaylon Johnson was rarely assigned shadow coverage last year. In terms of the Lions, Williams is lined up to be their biggest threat as a perimeter receiver.
Narrowing to regular season snaps, per PFF and to create an equal sampling, let’s look at how Williams and Stevenson lined up for their respective perimeter snaps last season.
Williams: 330 “wide” snaps-175 on the left, 155 on the right
Stevenson: 712 “wide corner” snaps: 332 in the left, 380 on the right
Going back to the data Jahnke referenced in naming Stevenson as a corner to target for fantasy purposes, that sure looks like a matchup to exploit with Williams’ game-breaking ability no matter where Stevenson is lined up.
By the time the Lions play the Bears for the first time this season, Thanksgiving Day, there will be plenty of tape to show if Jaylon Johnson is shadowing top perimeter wide receivers or not. If he’s not, there should be a bullseye on Stevenson in Ben Johnson’s game plan and Williams should be the one set up to exploit his deficiencies in coverage.
