FAB 1. Bucs Should Trade Up For Jackson Powers-Johnson Or Graham Barton

Jason Licht has made a lot of trades in his first 10 years as the Bucs general manager, but perhaps none bigger than moving up just one spot in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft to secure Iowa offensive tackle Tristan Wirfs.

It wasn’t an out-of-nowhere trade like his deal for pass rusher Jason Pierre-Paul, sending a third-round pick to the Giants in 2018. It wasn’t trading down to accumulate more picks during the draft, as he’s done in 2018 and in 2022.

It was not taking a chance on letting the draft come to him with Wirfs, who was the last of the top four offensive tackles available in the first round, still on the board. Sending a fourth-round pick to San Francisco to move up one spot and fill the hole at right tackle that was created with Demar Dotson’s departure was well worth it.

Wirfs, who is now manning the left tackle spot, has been one of the league’s top offensive tackles since entering the league as the 13th overall pick. He’s a three-time Pro Bowler and a two-time All-Pro.

Now, with the Bucs picking even lower in the first round this year at No. 26, Licht can’t afford to be too patient and let the draft come to him. Not with a glaring hole at left guard and the need for an upgrade at center, where Robert Hainsey has been serviceable at best.

There are two first-round interior offensive linemen in this year’s draft in Oregon center Jackson Powers-Johnson and Duke’s Graham Barton, who played left tackle in college but will be a guard or center in the NFL. Licht needs to be bold and be prepared to go get one of these stud linemen.

The Bucs just gave quarterback Baker Mayfield a three-year contract worth $100 million this offseason. Now the onus is on Licht and his scouts to protect that investment – Mayfield himself – as best as they can.

Sure, the draft is deep at interior offensive line, but why settle for the second- or third-best option when the best might be available within reach, as both Barton and Powers-Johnson aren’t expected to be drafted until after the first 15 picks or so?

Watching Powers-Johnson’s tape, the 6-foot-3, 323-pound mauler looks like the second coming of Ryan Jensen. He’s a physical, nasty finisher in both the run and the pass game. Interviewing him at both the Senior Bowl and the NFL Scouting Combine, Powers-Johnson revealed that his favorite center to watch and emulate was Jensen.

After Wirfs, the best offensive lineman Licht has ever selected was former Pro Bowl guard Ali Marpet, a super smart, super tough, super athletic left tackle out of Hobart College. Watching Barton at Duke and interviewing him at the Combine, the 6-foot-5, 313-pounder looks, plays, and even talks like Marpet. It’s uncanny how Barton looks like Marpet 2.0.

Marpet abruptly retired at age 28 following the 2021 season, still in his prime and still in the midst of a five-year contract through 2023. Yes, Marpet, who will only turn 31 on April 17, should’ve been the team’s left guard in 2022 and last year. That was the plan.

Further complicating things for the Bucs was Jensen’s catastrophic knee injury on the second day of training camp in 2022. Already without Marpet, Tampa Bay lost its Pro Bowl center for good as it turns out. Jensen’s knee injury was career ending and he retired this offseason at age 33. He was signed through the 2024 season.

Licht traded cornerback Carlton Davis III to Detroit for an extra third-round pick. He has the ammo to be aggressive and move up to get either the next Jensen or the next Marpet, which is exactly what Tampa Bay needs.

While the Bucs signed a pair of offensive linemen this offseason in guard Sua Opeta and Ben Bredeson, who will compete at center and guard, their addition only raises the floor of the team’s backups. Opeta and Bredeson are truly viewed as better depth than the team had in Aaron Stinnie and Nick Leverett, both of whom have departed in free agency.

Look no further than the contracts the Bucs paid both of their new linemen. Bredeson signed a one-year deal worth $3 million with $1.75 million in guaranteed money. Opeta signed a one-year deal worth $1.375 million. That’s backup money, folks.

That’s not to say that either one won’t compete for a starting job in training camp, but it’s clear to see that the Bucs will need to address the interior offensive line early in the draft – and they should do it in the first round. To wait until the second or third round to fill the hole at left guard or get an upgrade over Hainsey with what could be a lesser player is a risk that the Bucs can’t afford to take.

FAB 2. Why Upgrading Guard And Center Is So Important For The Bucs
NFL Films guru Greg Cosell, who is one of the smarter football analysts around, was Thursday’s guest on the Pewter Report Podcast and laid out the case for protecting Baker Mayfield, especially along in the interior offensive line.

“I’m not telling Jason Licht what he should or shouldn’t do, but I think when you have Baker Mayfield you obviously just laid out a ton of cash for, you have to make sure the center and guard position are taken care of,” Cosell said. “Now you don’t need three All-Pros, but that can’t be a weakness on your team because then your quarterback can’t function. And you just gave him a lot of money with the expectation that you’re going to get into the playoffs and have a good season.”

Cosell noted that shorter quarterbacks like Mayfield, who is 6-foot-1, 215 pounds, need better protection in the middle of the pocket. Last year, the Bucs struggled at left guard, where the combination of Matt Feiler and Aaron Stinnie were the weak links of the offensive line.

Right guard Cody Mauch was a rookie who had his ups and downs, and the drop off in play at center has been noticeable since Robert Hainsey replaced injured Pro Bowler Ryan Jensen in 2022.

“He’s a smaller guy and he’s not necessarily great when there are bodies around him,” Cosell said of Mayfield. “He needs to be protected, ideally in the middle because the center and the two guards – they control the depth of the pocket. And he needs the depth controlled. The tackles control the width of the pocket. He needs the depth of the pocket controlled because he is just over 6-feet [tall]. You have to make sure you take care of that so he does have clean sight lines.

“The other thing is that he’s a step thrower. Some guys don’t need to step into it. He’s a step thrower, so he absolutely needs the depth of the pocket handled because he needs to step into his throws.”

No play better demonstrates what Cosell is talking about than Mayfield’s crucial first quarter interception against Detroit in a 20-6 loss in Week 6. Mayfield saw Mike Evans wide open on a vertical route that could’ve resulted in a 92-yard touchdown, but Lions nose tackle Isaiah Buggs tipped the pass at the line of scrimmage and defensive back Will Harris intercepted it in the Bucs’ red zone.

Buggs, a 6-foot-3, 335-pound nose tackle, collapsed the pocket by driving Hainsey back a few steps and was able to get in Mayfield’s throwing lane to tip the pass. Mayfield was pressured up the middle far too many times last year.

According to Pro Football Focus, Mauch, a second-round pick, surrendered 57 pressures, including a team-high eight sacks in 2023 while making the transition from playing left tackle at North Dakota State to right guard in the NFL. Hainsey, a third-year pro, allowed 33 pressures, including five sacks. Stinnie and Feiler allowed a combined 44 pressures, including three sacks.

Newcomers Sua Opeta and Ben Bredeseon aren’t the answers when it comes to protecting Mayfield, either. Both are known for the run blocking as opposed to their pass protection. Opeta played in just nine games and allowed 25 pressures, including three sacks in Philadelphia.

Bredeson, who is expected to compete with Hainsey at center or at left guard, started 16 games across the interior offensive line for the New York Giants last season. His numbers were on par with Hainsey, surrendering 39 pressures, including five sacks.

“You just spent a lot of money on Baker Mayfield, who is a very good thrower of the football, but he’s a certain kind of quarterback,” Cosell said. “He can be successful as that kind of quarterback, as we know, but it’s very hard for him to be successful if the depth of the pocket is not controlled and taken care of.”

This further bolsters the argument for Bucs general manager Jason Licht being aggressive in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft and trading up for Duke’s Graham Barton or Oregon’s Jackson Powers-Johnson to upgrade the talent at center or fill the hole at left guard with a better, more capable athlete.

FAB 3. How High Would Tampa Bay Have To Trade Up To Get A Top IOL?
If Bucs general manager Jason Licht follows the same thought pattern as he did when it came to trading up one spot to get Pro Bowl offensive tackle Tristan Wirfs in the first round in 2020, how high would Tampa Bay have to go to secure either Oregon center Jackson Powers-Johnson or Duke’s guard-center Graham Barton?