Top 5 Most Unlikely NBA Playoff Runs of the Past Decade

At various points in the NBA’s history, certain seasons have featured a higher number of talented teams than others. Because the amount of playoff spots is always fixed, certain seasons have seen less talented teams make the playoffs and, occasionally, embark on deep runs.

Most Unlikely NBA Playoff Runs of the Past Decade

The past decade or so has not been immune to this phenomenon, and perhaps it is even more prevalent in today’s iteration of the game than ever before, due to the NBA Play-In Tournament and the expanded number of teams with chances of making the playoffs that come with it.

Over the past decade, certain teams have squeaked into the playoffs or made their way in due to unforeseen circumstances, only to defy the odds and make deep runs. While these teams did not win the Finals, they surprised and shocked the NBA world by making it to the dance in the first place.

52017 Boston Celtics

The Celtics capitalized on a relatively weak league in 2017

Isaiah Thomas

The case of the 2017 Boston Celtics is an interesting one. The team did not exactly lack talent and therefore was an underdog, but it was the volatile nature of the league that year that made their run somewhat unlikely.

The Celtics finished first overall in the Eastern Conference that year, with a record of just 53-29. With a winning percentage of .646, they were the worst Number 1 seed since the 2007 Detroit Pistons , who finished with the same record in that season.

In fact, only three teams in the 2016-17 season finished with more than 50 wins in the Eastern Conference, making it a relatively easy year to reach the playoffs – all a team needed was 42 wins.

2017 Boston Celtics – Playoff Log
Series Opponent Result
First Round Chicago Bulls Celtics in 6
Conference Semifinals Washington Wizards Celtics in 7
Conference Finals Cleveland Cavaliers Cavaliers in 5

The Western Conference, meanwhile, was a bit more stacked, with two teams finishing north of 60 wins (the Golden State Warriors and San Antonio Spurs ), but even that Conference saw a .500 team reach the playoffs (the Portland Trail Blazers at 41-41).

As for the Celtics, they capitalized on the opportunity by making a deep and relatively unexpected playoff run. They defeated the Chicago Bulls in the first round in six games, coming back from an 0-2 series deficit. Next, they took out the Washington Wizards in seven games, before being squashed by LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers in five games in the Conference Finals.

42017 San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs went deep despite losing Tim Duncan and Kawhi Leonard

Kawhi Leonard

2017 was an interesting transition period for the Spurs. It would mark their first season since 1996 that Tim Duncan would not be a part of the team, as he announced his retirement in the previous season after 19 seasons played and all five of the franchise’s titles earned.

Heading into the season, there were many questions regarding how the Spurs would respond and play without Duncan, and there was pressure to keep up their playoff streak by making their 20th straight in 2017. Thanks to a stellar season from Kawhi Leonard , they did just that, but the playoffs would be where it would go downhill.

The Spurs faced off against the Memphis Grizzlies in the first round and defeated them in six games. However, in the team’s next series against the Houston Rockets , Leonard would suffer an ankle injury and would be forced to miss time.

2017 San Antonio Spurs – Playoff Log
Series Opponent Result
First Round Memphis Grizzlies Spurs in 6
Conference Semifinals Houston Rockets Spurs in 6
Conference Finals Golden State Warriors Warriors in 4

The Spurs, heavy underdogs without Leonard, would be forced to step it up and prove to the world that they could win without Leonard, and they did to an extent.

San Antonio would manage to take the series with the Rockets in six games, despite Leonard missing Game 6. Their hopes and dreams would fall apart in the Conference Finals, however, as they had the pleasure of facing the juggernaut Warriors in that round without Leonard.

Leonard did attempt a comeback in Game 1, but he landed awkwardly on the foot of Zaza Pachulia, re-aggravating the injury and forcing him to sit out for the rest of the series. Without him, the Warriors would make quick work of the Spurs, sweeping them in the Conference Finals en route to their second of four titles in the dynasty.

32019 Portland Trail Blazers

The Blazers made a deep run despite the absence of Jusuf Nurkić

Damian Lillard

2019 was the last time the Portland Trail Blazers were a legitimate playoff team, and even that year’s run turned out to be somewhat unexpected. The team featured the talents of Damian Lillard and Jusuf Nurkic , which at the time was enough to make the playoffs.

The Blazers clinched their playoff spot with a thrilling double-overtime win over the Nets on March 25, 2019. However, that game would also see Nurkić fracture his tibia and fibula in the second overtime, rendering him out for the remainder of the season and playoffs.

2019 Portland Trail Blazers – Playoff Log
Series Opponent Result
First Round Oklahoma City Thunder Trail Blazers in 5
Conference Semifinals Denver Nuggets Trail Blazers in 7
Conference Finals Golden State Warriors Warriors in 4

The Blazers would therefore now be tasked with making a deep run without their second-best player, and that is exactly what they did. They defied the odds by taking out Paul George and the Oklahoma City Thunder in five games in the first round, with a clutch buzzer-beater three-pointer from Lillard sealing the deal.

In the second round, Portland would defeat the Denver Nuggets in seven games, including a quadruple overtime Game 3, which was the first in the playoffs since 1953. The Blazers’ unexpected playoff run would end, however, at the hands of the Warriors, as many teams’ playoff runs did at the time.

22024 Indiana Pacers

The Pacers feasted on injury-riddled teams to make a deep run

Tyrese Haliburton celebrates after a play against the Knicks.

One of the most surprising NBA playoff runs in the last decade occurred just recently in the 2024 playoffs. There is no question that the Indiana Pacers were a good team, featuring a solid core of Tyrese Haliburton , Pascal Siakam , and Myles Turner , among others. However, the case can be made that they received somewhat of an easy break over the course of their run.

The Eastern Conference was already somewhat weaker than the Western Conference, and the Pacers feasted on that. Several teams were compromised, including their first-round opponent, the Milwaukee Bucks . They had lost Giannis Antetokounmpo a few weeks prior with a calf injury, and he was to miss the entire series against the Pacers.

On top of that, Damian Lillard was compromised and also missed time. Those losses, combined with the less-than-subpar defense that the Bucks featured, and the Pacers capitalized, finishing off the Bucks in the first round in six games.

2024 Indiana Pacers – Playoff Log
Series Opponent Result
First Round Milwaukee Bucks Pacers in 6
Conference Semifinals New York Knicks Pacers in 7
Conference Finals Boston Celtics Celtics in 4

Then, the Pacers would move on to the New York Knicks in the second round. The Knicks were a great team on paper, but due to a swath of injuries, they managed to lose all of their starters by the end of the series. Most of the starters, including OG Anunoby and Jalen Brunson , got hurt during the Pacers series.

Despite the Knicks being a shell of themselves, they still managed to take the Pacers to seven games. Nonetheless, the Pacers would capitalize and take out the Knicks in seven games in what turned into a surprisingly deep playoff run that shocked the world.

The Pacers’ luck would run out in the Conference Finals, however, as they finally received the pleasure of facing a fully healthy (apart from one player) and legitimately stacked team in the Celtics. Boston swept the Pacers out of the playoffs to advance to NBA Finals, ending the Pacers’ lucky run.

12021 Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks upset two teams to reach the Conference Finals

Trae Young Atlanta Hawks

After beginning the season just 14-20, the Atlanta Hawks fired head coach Lloyd Pierce and replaced him with interim coach Nate McMillan. Just like the 1978 Seattle Supersonics, that ended up paying off as the Hawks mirrored that team’s season by turning it around, and engaging in a deep playoff run.

While the Hawks ultimately did not win the championship like the 1978 SuperSonics, they did shock the NBA world by embarking on the most unexpected playoff run of the past decade. After finishing with a record of just 41-31, 5th in the Eastern Conference, Trae Young and the Hawks would get hot at the right time by taking down a young Knicks squad in five games in the first round, a major upset.

2021 Atlanta Hawks – Playoff Log
Series Opponent Result
First Round New York Knicks Hawks in 5
Conference Semifinals Philadelphia 76ers Hawks in 7
Conference Finals Milwaukee Bucks Bucks in 6

Then, in the second round, a bigger upset occurred when the Hawks defeated Joel Embiid and the top-seed Philadelphia 76ers in seven games, advancing to the Eastern Conference Finals. It would be there where Atlanta’s luck would run out, as they would lose to the eventual champion Bucks in six games.

The truth of the matter is that the Atlanta Hawks were not expected to make it that far in 2021. Combined with the fact that they have failed to make a run that deep since, and a recipe for a lucky team making a surprise, unexpected playoff run forms.

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