Wild as it may seem, reigning American League Cy Young Award winner Gerrit Cole has a lot to prove in the final two months of the MLB season.
The Yankees’ ace missed almost the entire first half of the season as he recovered from an elbow injury and has been inconsistent in eight starts since he came off the Injured List.
With the Yankees tied for first in the American League East but with a starting rotation loaded with question marks, Bleacher Report’s Zachary Rymer named Cole among the players with the most to prove down the stretch.
“Initially, he lived up to [expectations] with four strong innings against the Orioles,” Rymer wrote about Cole’s first start on June 19. “The righty only has a 5.15 ERA in seven starts since then, however. And while that number is skewed by a couple of bad outings against the Mets, it’s harder to explain away how Cole’s average fastball … slower than it was in 2022.”
All Eyes on the Radar Gun for Gerrit Cole
As Rymer said, Cole appears to have lost a tick on his fastball. That’s not necessarily a huge concern; the six-time All-Star didn’t really have a Spring Training and it may take him time to get back to where he wants to be.
The Yankees don’t have the luxury of letting Cole go out and get hit while he finds himself, however.
The reality is that his fastball averaged 96.7 mph last year, according to FanGraphs. This year, it’s sitting at 96.0, brought up by his hardest-throwing start of the season Sunday against the Blue Jays. The velocity on his cutter is down as well (91.2 mph vs. 92.7). Same goes for his slider (88.4 vs. 87.9).
While it looked like Cole was starting to pitch harder after he struck out 7 over 6 innings against the Orioles on July 12, his next two starts saw dips in velocity again before he appeared to rebound in a so-so 5.2 innings against the Blue Jays.
Cole Should Be the Yankees’ Rotation Savior
It’s been a tale of two seasons for the Yankees, who may be starting to find themselves again with a 7-3 record over their last 10 games.
Through June 15, Yankees’ starters tied for the best ERA in baseball (2.85) led by dominant starts from Luis Gil, Carlos Rodon, Clarke Schmidt, and Marcus Stroman.
Since then, Yankees starters have the worst ERA in baseball (6.07) as Stroman and Rodon came back down to Earth and Schmidt went on the Injured List. As Rymer points out, Yankees starters have also accounted for 19 of the team’s 24 losses in that span.
In a rotation fighting for consistency, Cole can make a huge difference.
“The bottom line is that Cole is part of the problem within the Yankees’ rotation, and what a problem it is,” Rymer wrote. “The longer Cole pitches like he’s neither the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner nor the ace the Yankees are paying $324 million, the more precarious their position will feel.”
FanGraphs gives the Yankees a 99.6% chance to make the playoffs, so it appears their one-year postseason drought will end in October. They are also favorites to win the AL pennant for the first time since 2009 and are second to the Dodgers in World Series chances.
But that probably assumes their ace returns to being an ace.
